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On August 27, The Trump administration announced that it had reached a bilateral trade agreement in principle Mexico and pledged to move forward with it regardless of whether Canada joins, potentially upending commercial relations with its top trading partner.

What would a trade deal without Canada look like by the numbers? U.S. trade with its northern neighbor has grown by $200 billion over the past 15 years. U.S. imports from Canada and U.S. exports to Canada totaled over $580 billion in 2017. Excluding Canada from a trade deal with Mexico would leave over half of U.S. trade in the NAFTA region and 15 percent of global U.S. trade outside of a free trade agreement and exposed to additional tariffs.

U.S. Value of Trade with NAFTA Partners, Billions USD
Year	Canada	Mexico	NAFTA region
2002	370.01	232.09	602.10
2003	391.52	235.47	626.99
2004	446.24	266.63	712.87
2005	502.28	290.36	792.64
2006	533.09	331.97	865.07
2007	565.94	346.63	912.58
2008	600.64	367.16	967.80
2009	430.91	305.55	736.45
2010	526.89	393.65	920.54
2011	596.62	461.16	1057.78
2012	616.91	493.47	1110.38
2013	633.26	506.51	1139.77
2014	662.10	536.74	1198.84
2015	577.16	532.89	1110.05
2016	544.52	523.98	1068.49
2017	581.58	557.58	1139.17
Data: U.S. Department of Commerce; Total of trade is the sum of imports and exports.

Notes

For more on the U.S.-Mexico announcement, check out this episode of the Trade Guys podcast, and this analysis by CSIS experts.